2007 Future Book Values
AMY’S TOP FIVE FUTURE BOOK VALUES
Exhale - 40-1 (Odds are theVegas Line available at the Hilton)
Experienced trainer John Sadler has been quoted in the press saying this is the best horse he has ever had. Exhale was an $800K purchase as a 2YO and training and when he broke his maiden in the fall last year he earned a Beyer speed figure of 104. Critics are wondering if this speed brilliance reveals an eventual sprint destiny, but his pedigree (sire Millenium Wind) suggests he should be able to extend that speed. This horse is TEARING up the track with his works in the mornings, most recently 6f in 1:13. Prior to that he kept rolling out 5f in the morning in 1:00...with such repetition it’s as if it’s his cruising pace. Get on him now before he makes his stakes debut the first weekend in March and his odds slice in half.
Buffalo Man 50-1
I love this colt. He’s physically broad (on the video replays, he looks like a tank) and gritty and experienced for his age (7 races under his belt) and versatile (he won at 1 mile, 70 yards and then dropped back to win a stakes at 6f) and he’s patient and level-headed - he had a very well-timed, closing run against the track bias to win the Spectacular Bid Stakes. When he couldn’t get a decent post position in the Risen Star stakes at the Fair Grounds, his connections took him home to Ocala and entered him in the OBS Championship there, where he ran 1 and 1/16 in 1:44 and change and just missed the track record. He already has the earnings to get into the Derby gate.
He is owned by Rick Pitino and trained by Cam Gambolati…who is Gambolati? The trainer who has made one Derby appearance in his life – in 1985 with Kentucky Derby upset winner Spend a Buck.
Street Sense - 10-1
Yes, I am aware that his odds are “short” for the Future Book – 10-1 in both Vegas and the Churchill Downs Future Book line – but for the first time in ages I can’t disregard the Breeders Cup Juvenile winner and by the end of March, 10-1 might look like a bargain on him. Why don’t I think he’ll follow the fate of Arazi – smashing the BC Juvy field and finishing up the track on Derby day? Carl Nafzger is the reason – I hold the gifted trainer (who, for those of you who aren’t familiar with the name, trained such greats as Unbridled, Vicar, and Banshee Breeze) in high esteem and while critics complain about the absence of Street Sense in recent preps, Nafzger is giving his horse ample rest to be best prepared for his 3YO debut…and his colt responded to the rest by demonstrating how sharp he is through his workout this weekend, 5f in a shade over 1:00. I have had this horse on my stable watch and have enjoyed getting those very patterned emails about his momentum-building works and seeing Nafzger very slowly crank the screws back up on him. This may be the year that the BC Juvenile / Derby course is broken.
Law Breaker 125-1
This horse is an absolute steal at 125-1 after his San Vicente Stakes performance on 2/11, when he finished a strongly closing second to Noble Court. When I watched the replay of the Vicente I had to double-check the date that Vegas posted their odds update….but sure enough, their odds are updated – you people out there are asleep on this horse!
I see his detractors are questioning whether a Silver Deputy colt wants the Derby distance but his maternal sire, Kingmambo, provides a solid distance influence to his pedigree and in recent years I have seen this trend with speed on top and stamina on the bottom (Funny Cide, Smarty Jones) and I have eliminated horses before without looking at this new trend and won’t be caught doing it again.
Baffert isn’t a trainer who wants to be at home in California on Derby Day. To be part of the show we have seen him enter horses considered to be ‘on the margin’ by the oddsmakers, and he has had some shocking success with those horses – I would put both Real Quiet and War Emblem in this category, who paid $18.80 and $43.00 respectively. At this stage in the year it appears that several of other Baffert’s hopefuls are struggling and this horse is, in my opinion, his strongest Derby contender – I expect Baffert to nurse him into the Derby gate one way or another, even if he throws in a clunker between now and then….and aren’t odds of 125-1 a nice price for a horse you believe is likely to be in the gate on Derby Day as long as he’s healthy?
Much like the case of Law Breaker, Nick Zito is another trainer who will do everything he can to get his best 3YO in the gate on Derby Day and here he is – Zito’s top prospect. His last start was his 2nd place finish in the Swale stakes and I took note of one important factor in his inability to close the distance between himself and Adore the Gold – he never switched leads at the top of the stretch – and yet he still managed to close on a tired left lead, falling just short against very quick fractions and a very high class winner on that day. Put some distance and maturity into this horse and the outcome may very well be worth his price.
Posted by silent-thunder-va
at 11:57 PM EST
Updated: Thursday, 22 February 2007 12:28 AM EST